| 04 April 2009
UConn -4-1/2 vs. Michigan State
The best of the Big East against the best of the Big Ten. The legendary Jim Calhoun matching wits against battle tested Tom Izzo. A classic matchup of two experienced, deep teams. UConn has the trio of AJ Price, Hasheem Thabeet, and Jeff Adrien. Thabeet is a special defender, able to change games with his incredible shot blocking ability and redounding. Not much of a scoring threat, but a game changer nonetheless. Price may be the most impressive point guard I've seen in the tournament, running UConn's offense, playing tough D, and making clutch shots down the stretch. Adrien is averaging 14 points a game and can also apply the heat on defense. The only challenge these guys have is staying out of foul trouble. If they do that, they might roll a bit.
Michigan State counters with Big Ten player of the year, sophomore Kalin Lucas. The Spartans have far more balanced scoring than the Huskies, with their other four starters averaging about 10 points per game. They also regularly go 10 deep, keeping players fresh late in the game, and keeping their starters out of foul trouble. Being well rested, and getting those minutes to their 9 and 10 guys is a big reason MSU has gone this far. Senior center Goran Suton has stepped up in the tournament, asserting himself in the paint and even making some clutch 3 pointers when necessary. MSU also has Big Ten defensive player of the year in Senior Travis Walton, who will be in charge of shutting down AJ Price. This may be the matchup that decides the game. Walton has already shut down Kansas's and Louisville's guards, now he has his toughest task ahead in Price.
The pick: Both teams are 4-0 against the spread in the tournament. Either team can win this game. In a battle pitting two well coached, deep teams, playing great basketball, take the points. Also, the game is being played in Detroit, Michigan. Home game? Hmmmmm..... UConn may win, but 4-1/2 is a bit too much for a toss-up game.
North Carolina -7vs. Villanova
It is crazy how deep North Carolina is. They routinely go ten deep on this team and don't lose a step, and that's saying a lot when you have the best starting five in Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Green and Thompson. The entire starting five average double figures in scoring. Freshman Tyler Zeller's return from an injury has been an unexpected boost to a team that didn't really need it. If Lawson's injury keeps improving, and the team continues to play unselfishly, I don't see anyone stopping these guys. Villanova has been playing great basketball, but can they keep up with the waves of Tar Heels that are about to be thrown at them? I really don't think Hansbrough is leaving college without a championship. He's going to rip off somebody's arm if that's what it takes. This kid freaks me out.
Villanova needs to play a perfect game to beat the Tar Heels. Led by Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds, Villanova is playing their best basketball right now. Their defense has been superb all tournament long. They are deep in guard play, rotating 4 guards in with Reynolds, Fisher, Stokes, and Anderson. Depth up front is a huge concern. If Cunningham or their other starting forward, Shane Clark, get into foul trouble, North Carolina could blow out Villanova.
The pick: I picked against UNC last round, and I don't think I can make that mistake again. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tourney, Nova is 3-1. Give the 7 and take the Tar Heels. They just have too many weapons and too much depth for Villanova. This could get ugly if either of Nova's forwards get into foul trouble.
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Comments (6)
Subscribe to this comment's feedUConn
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MIchigan State Wins
Also, last week I claimed Louisville was "considered" the best team out of the Big East. I thought UConn was the best team coming out of the Big East, and certainly the best looking Big East team in the tournament. Now I need UNC to win, and I sweep just about every bracket I'm in. Go Heels!
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11 deep
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UNC
also, random emoticon:
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