| 06 April 2009
So, here we are. If you've been reading my articles leading up to the championship game, you should be flush with cash. I was 2-0 on Saturday, and 3-1 last weekend. Now we have the two best teams in the country and yes, I do believe these are the two best teams left. UNC crushed everyone in their way. They easily dispatched the best player in the country in Blake Griffin and the Oklahoma Sooners before moving on to bury the surprising Wildcats of Villanova. Michigan State hammered the two best teams out of the Big East in Connecticut and before them, Louisville. What I try to do when sizing up teams to bet on, is figure out what I personally think the spread should be before the spreads are listed. After Saturday nights games, I figured the point spread would be 4-5 points. When it opened at 7-1/2, I was shocked. My first instinct is to scream, "Too much!", before running over to my bookie and placing my kid's college funds on the game. But first, let's take a good look at the game and the matchup.
North Carolina is easily the more talented team here. They have Ty Lawton and Wayne Ellington in the back court, along with forwards Denny Green and Tyler Hansbrough, they have more weapons than they know what to do with. If any of them get cold, any one of them can step up and be "the guy". They have good depth in the frontcourt and backcourt, and have shooters at every position. If you do one of those ESPN Comparison boxes, it would mostly all go North Carolina's way, Frontcourt, Backcourt, Defense, with Depth and Coaching being an even, (maybe give Izzo the edge on coaching).
Michigan State counters with Sophomore Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan. They also have center, Goran Suton, who could neutralize the ultra-creepy Tyler Hansbrough. A key matchup here may be Travis Walton guarding Ty Lawton. If Walton, Morgan and the waves of Spartans Izzo throws out there, can keep Lawton and Ellington off balance, Michigan State has a good chance to win this game. If they can't counter the 3-pointers UNC is sure to fire, the Spartans may be in for a long night. Remember, MSU has covered every game in the tournament. All of their games have been close at halftime. They keep their players fresh by going 10-11 deep, and they just outplay everybody down the stretch. They've done it every game. North Carolina's last two opponents, Oklahoma and Villanova, have only been able to go 7 deep. They're going against a team that can go 10 deep no problem. This may be the first team in quite a while that matches up to North Carolina's depth. The only concern I have with Michigan State is their offense can go ice cold, and if the Tar Heels keep scoring early, it may be too big of a hole to climb out of. MSU is horrible at 3-pointers, so if they need to go there, they could be in deep trouble.
So what does this all mean...Well, if North Carolina plays their "A" game and Michigan State plays their "A" game, North Carolina wins by 6. If UNC plays their "A" game and MSU plays their "B" game, North Carolina wins by 18. If North Carolina plays their "B" game and MSU plays their "A" game, MSU wins by 2 or UNC wins by 2, haaa, close. I have to think Izzo is going to get his guys ready. Hansbrough did not stay for four years to lose this game his senior year. So tough to pick. Both teams are 5-0 against the spread in the tournament. North Carolina has been giving 7-1/2 points for three games now. I think in this game that is 2 points too many. Don't forget, Michigan State basically has a home game here. I know North Carolina beat them by 35 here in December, but I think that only serves to motivate the Spartans. That game may have also inflated the spread by a point or two with our friendly oddsmakers.
Take Michigan State and 7-1/2 points...
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Comments (2)
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MSU won the 2nd half, but it wasn't enough to overcome the deep hole they were in. Plus, the refs swallowed the whistle early on some of Ty Lawsons, "steals/reach-ins", some were foul-worthy. Regardless, Lawson was the best player on the floor. The guy was simply great in the first half. MSU came back and made a run, got it to 13 at one point, but UNC has too many weapons, and MSU's achilles heel of bad 3 point shooters was exposed.
Stats of the game: UNC 9 steals, MSU 21 Turnovers...
Game Over.
PS I won the staff bracket.
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Done in by the Big Ten again
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