| 09 April 2009
I can barely play the game of golf, and walking the course is not the problem. There is something mystic about the relationship of the golf ball and the face of the golf club, and I can't figure it out. That doesn't mean I don't love the game, just that I recognize my shortcomings, meaning failures, meaning abject humiliation.
A good golf course is easily the most natural balance of art and experience common to the world today. Paradoxically, the most beautiful parts of a golf course are invariably the most damaging to one's score. Be sure to appreciate the gentle cushion of the six-inch rough beneath your feet as you search for your wayward drive. Enjoy the widening ripples created by your skulled pitch into the placid pond protecting a green. Crave the solace of isolation while your sliced iron shot bounds along a cracked desert.
The small triumphs and tragedies of the hacker's game have been chronicled fully by sportswriters and laymen alike, and can be found daily from April through September on your local municipal course (or year-round if you happen to live in more balmy climes). For true drama, we turn to professionals, the kind of people who actually have an idea of where their ball is headed before they step up and address, and the most exciting tournaments are held in the temples of golf.
I keep my list of the best courses in the world short: St. Andrews, Pebble Beach, Augusta. I could accept arguments for dozens of others, but each of these three exemplify design and challenge with more than a dash of history, and I'm the one writing this piece. In the rarified air of the best courses, only one is visited each year with a major championship on the line, and it is the U.S. Masters tournament to which we turn our attention (and televisions by the millions) this week.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the controversy of Augusta National Golf Club not allowing female members. I am of the belief that they should, but I can't bring myself to feel anything negative for this tournament. In the words of Mr. Pink, "...if you ask me to sign something that says [Augusta National] shouldn't do that, I'll sign it; put it to a vote, I'll vote for it; but what I won't do is play ball." Whenever they decide to allow female members, it will be many years too late, but it will most certainly happen.
I could continue to wax philosophic on the parallel meanings of golf and life, the splendor of that one shot in a round that makes up for the other 115 or so, but you're probably only interested in the operative word in the title: gambling.
Yes, gambling is alive and well in America, even though relatively few people live in areas where it is technically legal (if you want to impress your friends, Congress claims the power to regulate interstate gambling via the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3). I don't want to get anyone arrested, or be implicated in conspiracy to commit heinous crimes, or even make anyone go bankrupt, so keep in mind that these value bets are purely for the purposes of entertainment. Without further ado, here are the top 5 best and worst bets available for the 2009 U.S. Masters tournament (lines from www.bodoglife.com for no reason other than my general familiarity with the site). Remember that this is not a list of the five most and least likely to win the Masters, but rather the best and worst picks in terms of value for the dollar.
Worst Bets
5. The 1000/1 guys - I'm all for big payoffs, but with the advent of value menus at fast food restaurants there are just too many better uses for a dollar. Betting anyone in this crowd will at best bring you certainty on Saturday that you've wasted your money, and at worst make you cry when Sandy Lyle makes a miracle run to the top of the leaderboard, only to close with a 47 on the back nine on Sunday. Of course, that would make me cry, too.
4. Vijay Singh (50/1) - It wasn't long ago that this line would be about 12/1. It just doesn't look like Vijay has it in him anymore. He's talented enough to be competitive for a few more years on the Tour, but he would have to be going off about 4 times worse to make a bet worth it.
3. Greg Norman (150/1) - After all, this is the Masters. The Shark contending through the weekend would be great for teevee, as would his subsequent (no doubt heartbreaking) loss. His quotes from practice rounds were less than encouraging, noting that Augusta is set up like a different course than 7 years ago. Well, yes, it is: it's faster, longer and the par 5s are a lot more risk, a lot less reward than they used to be.
2. Jim Furyk (50/1) - Don't look for Furyk to make my list of worst bets again, but he's still recovering from his wrist injury. I love him for being from Western Pennsylvania, being ridiculously bald but wearing a hat oh-so-convincingly, and for his unorthodox swing, yet it's just not his year. If you don't believe me, take a look at his 2009 results (reverse chronological order): 3, T9, T33, T41, T52. That's not a positive curve.
1. Tiger Woods (7/4) - Believe you me, nothing would make me happier than Tiger being in contention on Sunday. First and foremost, my lovely girlfriend enjoys watching Tiger because his excellence transcends the game, so sitting around and watching golf for hours won't be so contentious. However, at worse than 2/1, Tiger is a terrible bet. No one is more mentally tough, but he's coming off a horrible injury and has to contend with a course that has been revamped in the past decade specifically to challenge him. I have no doubt that he could win, but stay away at these odds. Tiger's value is further damaged by his name recognition, because much if not most of the money wagered on this tournament will go on him, and bookies don't accept bets for kicks.
Best Bets
5. Padraig Harrington (16/1) - It's tough to argue with the guy who, if he wins the Masters, will become the third man to win three in a row in the modern era, alongside a few historical footnotes: Tiger Woods and Ben Hogan. He could provide a pretty nice payday while flying under the radar, which is pretty much his modus operandi.
4. Ian Poulter (80/1) - Guaranteed to make the board in both best and worst sartorial choices of the week, Poulter has the game to pick up a green jacket. He's shaky because he's not the longest driver in the world, which is going to make some of the longer holes play with a long iron (or potentially a hybrid/fairway wood) into the lightning-fast greens, but he could well have an advantage if any adverse weather comes up (wind being most likely, in case you were wondering).
3. Hunter Mahan (80/1) - When I picked Hunter, I thought he was going off at 66/1 - it's like I made $14 (times my investment) already! He's been playing pretty well, but not spectacularly, and is hitting greens about 5% better than the average professional this year. GIR is more important than ever as the course plays longer and harder, and Hunter's got it on lockdown. I don't think he has the ability to jump up the leaderboard, so look for him to plod along to the weekend, then make a move on Moving Day. If he's within 2-3 on Sunday, he's a serious threat.
2. Sergio Garcia (30/1) - I might have him a bit overvalued, but El Nino clearly has the skillset to win a major. If he can get into position on moving day and keep his emotions (and his putting) in check, he could be a force. Plus, he's acquainted with Butler Cabin, as he was low amateur in 1999. In case you don't know, El Nino means "the Nino."
1. Henrik Stenson (33/1) - Most likely to have stripped to his underwear to play a shot this year, Henrik is playing with something with which most of you aren't familiar: Swedish pride. We've never had a Swedish champion, and Henrik is positioned perfectly to be the first. At 33/1 and holding on to the 8 spot on the world rankings, Henrik is this year's #1 value for Masters gambling.
And there you have it. We'll see how I did on Sunday. If you're interested in a professional sportswriter's breakdown of the entire field, see the incomparable Jason Sobel's Masters rankings here. You might as well check out his live blog too, which I'll be reading while I watch. And try to take a few moments while watching the tourney to really look at the beauty of Augusta National; the ESPN teasers alone are lifting my spirits.
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Comments (6)
Subscribe to this comment's feedThe 1000/1 Crowd
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First Day Update
Worst
5. The 1000/1 crowd mostly performed to expectations. Notable exceptions: Larry Mize, who is probably making Greg Norman's night sleepless and fitful, at -5 (!!!); Sandy Lyle at even par; Jack Newman, feel-good amateur who's a junior at NCAA men's runner-up Michigan State, at even par. With the hole locations getting tougher, you can't make the list of surprising longshots unless you're at or below par (which happens to be the cut line at the moment).
4. Vijay appears to want to stick around for the weekend at -1, but that's probably about as well as he can play on this course. I'd say he's more likely to break 80 than 70.
3. The aforementioned Greg Norman would be feeling great about his -2 (and he should), but nemesis Larry Mize is sitting at -5, leering down at the Shark with his googly eyes, reminding him of the nightmare of 1987.
2. Jim Furyk, obviously a regular reader of AC, is pissed that I shot down his chances, so he rode Augusta like a rented mule en route to a -6. This pick tugged at my heartstrings because I like Furyk so much, and is now going to make me a public fool.
1. Tiger had a very un-Tiger round. He more or less pulled it together, but he's disappointed about his -2. If he can get some putts to fall and avoid the woods and airmailing greens, he'll be in the final grouping on Sunday. As pointed out by Jason Sobel, the other 3 times Tiger's shot 70 on the first day of the Masters, he's won the tournament.
Best
5. Paddy's -3 should have been a -4 or -5: he bogeyed the par 5 15th (Firethorn, for those of you who like to know the hole names at Augusta), which is playing as the 3rd easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of 4.64. He's incredibly even-keeled, so this is a formidable number for the reigning British and PGA champ.
4. Ian Poulter shot -1 and should be in the mix tomorrow, as he gets to tee off early. The weather report says possible thundershowers in the afternoon, which might make things a bit slippy for anyone teeing off late. Of course, it might also soften the greens and lower scores.
3. Hunter Mahan makes me look like a genius the same way Jim Furyk makes me look like a boob. He'll sleep well at -6.
2. Sergio isn't exactly inspiring confidence at +1, and he played with too much consistency (3 birdies, 4 bogeys, 11 pars, middle-of-the-pack GIR, fairways and putts) on a day where low scores were quite available. If he can stay consistent and shave a stroke or two, Friday and Saturday could be more lucrative.
1. Henrik Stenson needs to figure out the par 4s. Out of the 10 at Augusta, he made 2 pars, 3 birdies and 5 bogeys. That's not going to get it done, though at -1 he shouldn't have much trouble getting to the weekend.
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Great Article
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Chad Campbell
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Checking in on Moving Day
That said, here's who you should be watching today:
Tiger. Clearly, everyone will have an eye on how Tiger handles the disappointment of two tough days and whether he can realistically contend on Sunday. He'll probably need to shoot a 67.
Co-leaders Campbell and Perry could put the rest of the field out of contention by going low today, but can they handle the pressure (and those back pins)? Each has led a major at the halfway mark, but neither has been close to pulling the trigger. I have a feeling we won't be talking about either in green jacket on Sunday.
Jim Furyk and Vijay Singh are each recovering from injuries, which made them prime candidates for my worst bets list. However, at -4 and -3, respectively, they are exceeding expectations. Can Furyk's wrist hold on through the weekend? Can Vijay look like the Singh we should be talking about (instead of Jeev Mikah)? Moving Day should give us the answers.
Paddy's at -2 after a wicked ruling on Friday. That's probably enough to get in his head for the rest of the weekend. He's been playing well, but I can't imagine coming through when he's already 7 shots behind the leaders and has to remember the wind gust that cost him a stroke every time he makes a putt.
I still say Henrik looks like a lion if he can get the par 4s in gear. He doesn't have a bogey on a par 3. Or a par 5. Unfortunately, 10 holes on the course are par 4s. If he can play the par 4s today in even par and keep up his streak, he'll be in great position on Sunday.
Rory Mcilroy, for no other reason than he's 19 and better at golf than you ever will be at anything else. After nearly getting DQ'ed on Friday (I can explain if anyone wants to know), he still hit the cut on the number. He's not going to win this year, but he's a rare talent among a few other young guns, like...
Anthony Kim, who has great belt buckle choices. He set a record for most holes under par (11) in a Masters round. He's 23. He and Mcilroy ought to be duking it out for Masters championships for the next 20 years.
I'm still feeling pretty good about my best value bets. The worst score after Friday was even par by Poulter, who's -1 today. My best value picks were an average of 6.6 shots off the lead (all made the cut). Let's see how things shape up on Moving Day.
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exciting to anticlimatic.
When Cabbrerra put it in the pine straw behind a tree, and then hit a tree on his second on the first playoff hole everyone figured he was done. Somehow he pulled it out. When he won the US Open he played his last 18 with a stogie hanging out of his mouth. I respect that. Is that a no-no at Augusta?
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