After a week of sick leave - probably due to the Broncos' downward spiral - i'm back on my feet. Denver cost me nearly half my season winnings in their loss to the redskins - the Washington fucking redskins - without Portis. WTF. Oh well, at least I was burned enough to stay as far away from the Chargers/Broncos line as humanly possible. Things are looking good with some exciting games this week, but before we get into that lets cover some interesting shit that happened.
Double Barrell
Titans 86 year old owner Bud Adams saluted Bills fans in style after the Titans 47-17 win last week on MNF. I can't figure out whats most awesome about this - the fact he is 86 and clearly doesnt give a fuck, the fact that the NFL fined him 250k for it, or the fact that this isn't his first obscene gesture. When Adams and the Titans won the AFC championship in 2000 he was asked what he would do if he won a superbowl with the team he moved from Texas to Tenn. According to NBCSports.com, Adams held up a single digit on his right hand and said, "I'll put it on the middle finger and say to the mayor of Houston to take a look at it." After the awesome game this Monday vs Texas, Tenn is my new team to root for.
Theismann, McCallum, and now Wood
The injury so gruesome CBS refused to replay it. Bills rookie guard Eric Wood took a hit to the side of his shin and, well, the rest is history. Compound tibia and fibula. Makes me squirm. Check it out.
Hester Gets Pants'd
As if the current level of Bears play isnt embarrassing enough, Hester (understandably) dropped a Cutler pass and was tackled - by his jock strap. Not to be one-upped, Cutler threw an interception on the potential game winning drive and got an awkward post-game advice session from D-Nabb. Which is more embarrassing? You can decide.
NFL Week 12 - Thanksgiving-a-palooza
While most of us are in a self-induced food coma, football will be happening. While I'm still a little sore - literally and figuratively - from the broncos recent performances, I think they have a good line this week. Currently, they are +7 at home against the Giants. Yes, the Broncos are all over the board, and I don't necessarily think they will win, but the second the line moved from 6.5 to 7, I was all over it. I'll go out on a limb here and say 75% of the time the broncos lose by a TD or less this week. It's not going to be half my bankroll, but its a bet. Now I just have to find somewhere to watch the game, fucking NFL network.
Obviously, the game of the week is Patriots @ Saints. I've got news for the patriot nation, the Pats are the 4th best team in the country. Saint #1, Colts #2, Vikings #3. Deal with it. Because of this, I think the line is a little inflated for the Pats - they are a 3pt underdog. The Patriots D will not be able to handle the multi-threat offense, and although it will be a slugfest the Saints will win by at least 7. Brees will out throw Brady by 15 yds. Final score - New England 21, Saints 31.
Not a lot to say about last week other than it feels good to crush again. The only two incorrect picks for the weekend were very suprising, Stanford destroyed the 7pt favorite Oregon (who wudda thought?) and the packers decided to prove they are actually terrible. Otherwise, things were great - My underdog picks of the week were exciting as the Chargers brought it down to the wire and Cincinnati continues to prove they are a legit team. I love good weekends; it makes me feel like the oracle. No real drama this weekend, other than Tommie Harris punching a guy 65 seconds into the game. The bears are already a mess and im sure this didn't help. It took 65 seconds of gameplay for Harris to punch the Deuce in the facemask... this is confusing on so many levels. What on earth could you possibly be that worked up about in 65 seconds? Why would you punch someone in their helmet?? it protects their fucking head you asshole. Also, get up Deuce, he punched your helmet - you take blows to the head for a living.
This week...
Lets get right down to it. Patriots @ Colts. Im going to take the Colts here. Why? Because I hate Tom Brady. Also, the Colts are a better team, especially at home. Its going to be a hell of a show, and the colts will come out on top 28-21. These two teams are evenly matched with Brady-Moss-Welker vs Manning-Clark-Wayne, and I think the Patriots Defense is a little better. In New England, the patriots win. At a neutral field, I give the Colts a miniscule advantage, and in Indy i'll take the Colts. Its going to be close, and im not saying bet the farm on it. But if you like the colts, and want to bet, take it.
The most exciting game of the week may be the Pats vs Colts, but the best spot for your money is the Broncos vs Redskins game. Last week I warned against the Broncos, they were getting a terrible line. They played like shit. It was embarrasing. The good news? It contributed to the most rediculous line of the year - Denver (-3.5) @ Washington. WTF? Yes, the Broncos are playing like shit... but not actual shit. Of concern is Marshall missing Weds practice with back problems - no word yet on this weekend. He didn't come out of the game against the Steelers, and im sure he will be listed as questionable, but expect him to end up playing. The real matchup to watch will be Dumervil taking on Levi Jones in his first game at left tackle for the skins. If Dumervil can beat Jones, expect him to get a few mean hits on Jason Campbell's blindside as he hangs out in the pocket a little too long. Also old school Bronco Ben Hamilton will be replaced Russ Hochstein at left gaurd - further transforming the Broncos into the little patriots. If Orton doesnt come out of the gates crushing, I wouldn't be terribly suprised if McDaniels gives Simms a shot. I like Orton a lot but it pained me to watch his weak arm exploited on MNF. We all knew he wouldn't be throwing bombers downfield, but get him throwing off his back foot and he looks like an 80 year old woman. All in all, the Broncos have some problems, but I have faith in the coaching staff to take risks to fix them. Broncos 28 - Washington 13.
Wagers
Patriots @ Colts (-3) - Risk $5 to win $4.76 Jaguars @ Jets (Over 40pts) - Risk $5 to win $4.55 Broncos (-3.5) @ Redskins** - Risk $60 to win $56.28 Falcons (-1.5) @ Panthers** - Risk $7.50 to win $6.82 Saints (-13.5) @ Rams** - Risk $7.50 to win $6.82 Bears @ 49ers (-3) - Risk $10 to win $8 (Correct) What a shit show.. Thanks for not letting me down Cutler. **3-parlay - $5 to win $30
Arizona (+1.5) @ Cal - Risk $10 to win $9.09 Iowa (+17) @ Ohio St - Risk $5 to win $4.55 Fan bet: Wyoming (+7.5) @ SDSU - Risk $5 to win $4.55 UAB (-1) @ Memphis - Risk $5 to win $4.55 **UAB (0), Arizona (+110) - Risk $5 to win $15.05 Temple (-5), Arizona U (+125), Falcons (-1.5) - Risk $8 to win $60.61
Last weeks picks
Washington @ Atlanta (-10) - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct) Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+3) - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct) Chargers (+4.5) @ Giants** - Risk $10 to win $9.09 (Correct) Chargers (+190) @ Giants - Risk $5 to win $9.50 (Correct) Green Bay (-10) @ Tampa - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Incorrect) UL Monroe (+1) @ North Texas** - Risk $15 to win $13.64 (Correct) Oregon (-7) @ Stanford - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Incorrect) Oklahoma St (-7.5) @ Iowa St - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct) TCU (-24.5) @ San Diego St - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct) Bowling Green @ Buffalo (-3) - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Incorrect) **2-parlay - Risk $5 to win $9.50 (Correct)
Net: +$44.93 NFL + NCAA Season-to-date: +$263.58
(61% on strait picks, net +$234.08) (50% on parlays, net +$29.50)
Well, it was bound to happen eventually. My picks last week saw more red than a fire station paint locker. Sometimes you go out on a limb and pick a lot of upsets and it works out; this wasn't one of those times. The Broncos got outhustled, Cutler and the Bears covered, and MNF was a slugfest. I usually do a pretty good job about diversifying my wagers, but I loaded up on Denver this weekend and paid the price. All losses aside, it sure was a fun weekend of pigskin.
The Favre bowl lived up to the hype and gave me a newfound respect for Bret. Not just because he continues to prove he is one of the greatest ever to play, but you can tell that the man truly loves the game... that's it, he just loves playing football. I don't get involved with the argument of why Favre's not playing for GB. Favre kinda left the GM out to dry with his flip-flopping in 2008, and Thompson had to make the best decision at the time for the franchise - committing to Aaron Rodgers. I'm fine with that (although, I CANNOT imagine Elway coming into Mile High wearing black and silver). Favre threw four touchdowns and was absolutely elated after each one; you could tell all he cared about was playing football and playing it well. I loved looking in the stands and seeing handfuls of fully garbed cheese heads cheering along with him. With news of his groin injury, the old dog must be happy he has a bye this weekend. Mark my words; this will be Brett's last season playing NFL football. Keep an eye on Percy Harvin - the guys a fucking beast. And now that he is on punt returns also, look for some (more) tremendous special teams action - and an NFL offensive rookie of the year.
Quick note on college football. Florida routed Georgia, no surprise. I didn't get to watch the game, but I must admit I spent a few hours trying to see if I could manage to fly down just for the party that surrounds this event. I mean who wouldn't want to go to an awesome football game that also results in a record number (252) of drinking arrestes? Sounds like a hell of a party. Maybe next year. Fresh off of injury, Brandon Spikes kept things interesting by trying to remove Easley's eyeball. The panicked reaction by Easley confirms it - that fucking hurts. I understand stuff like this happens, but I always thought it was like "hey my hand ended up under your mask, might as well poke yer eye," but Spikes was fingering like he was having flashbacks to his days in the dorms. The result? A first half "suspension" against Vandy. Right. Nice punishment. "I don't condone that," ... "I spoke with him. That's not who he is. That's not who we are. He got caught up in emotion." If Meyer had any brains he would suspend him for the entire game to appease everyone, while at the same time giving Spikes a chance to get back to 100% health. It's a win-win, that's what you Florida fans want right, the title?
Well, where do I start for my first official contribution to Armchair? I guess I could tell you a little bit about myself. Born and raised in Colorado, I'm a rabid broncos fan. If you are an asshole Patriots fan, I hate you. If you are a Bears fan, I root against your team solely in hopes of seeing Cutler throwing multiple interceptions. I was ecstatic about getting Cutler out of Denver, and I said by week 5 before Bears fans would be throwing him under the bus. Cutler may win some games, but the ones he loses feel like a stiff kick in the nuts - right Chicago? What else about me... I ran (and drank) competitively in college... My greatest achievement came with a combination of the two: a world record in the beer mile. Four unopened beers + four laps = 5:41. Ship it. After college I paid the bills for a while with some poker related income, including running a questionably legal gambling operation. Now with a legitimate job as a research scientist, I consider myself an avid armchair sports bettor and poker player. While I confidently say I'm a lifetime winner between the two, degeneracy at the craps and roulette tables probably has me at even. So far this season I haven't had a losing week between NCAA and NFL.
Last weekend.
This last weekend was as exciting as it could be without the Broncos playing. Larry Johnson spiced things up with another slur against homosexuals. What's this guy thinking? I wouldn't tweet something like that and I'm not in the national spotlight - or making probably 40k a game. Can't he just do like the rest of us and save the slurs for beers with the buddies? Speaking of Gay, William Gay was discriminated against by Adrian Peterson this weekend. I'm not sure what's scarier: AP railing Gay, or AP screaming like a god-damn mad-man about it afterward. I still think the Vikings could have won the game, and me a lot more money, but it didn't work out that way. You win some, you lose some.
Well, last weekend was quite the roller coaster. After Tom Brady skull F'd my 3 team parlay/Under bet, I was sitting about even (-$5) before the Wild Horses/Bolts game rolled around on Monday night. How is it possible that I wake up Sunday morning and say to myself "Wow, blizzard at Gillette Stadium?! The under on 43.5 is lookin great!" I shouldn't have jinxed myself when making picks last week - "Tom Brady could decide to actually show up at some point this season and put some points up." Thanks Tom. Without a career game - all in the 3rd quarter - I just about sweep my bets for the weekend.
