| 09 September 2009
It seems that every year, the NFL provides its fans with an unpredictable season. However, that doesn’t stop journalists, talking heads, and ignorant fans from making their own predictions. With that said, here are some pre-season thoughts from a man who likes to think of him self as slightly smarter than ignorant…
See my 2009 NFL Season predictions after the jump:
AFC East
New England; 14-2: -
There is not a lot of reason to think this Patriot team will be much worse than the one that went undefeated in the regular season two years ago. Their schedule is not especially tough, as they play only one great defense and two great offenses all season. They won 11 games last year with a backup QB; 14 wins is not unrealistic in 2009.
New York Jets; 8-8: -
This offense is much better than people realize; returning line and a variety of skills/talent at RB and WR. Last year the Jets were 0-4 on the west coast; this year they only have one west coast trip (@ OAK). Still, the defensive learning curve that comes with a new system and a new attitude could prevent this team from winning the 10 or 11 that it’ll take to make the playoffs.
Buffalo; 8-8: -
Next to Arizona, the Bills might have the best set of receivers (top to bottom) in all of football, leaving the fait of this team in the hands of a young QB. Trent Edwards looked like the real deal early in 2008, but was never the same after a rough concussion. Week 3 vs NO and Week 8 vs HOU will show everyone if this team should be taking seriously, but even if their in contention late into the season, finishing against New England, @ Atlanta, and vs Indianapolis might be a little too much.
Miami; 3-13: -
Statistically, the Dolphins have the most difficult schedule in all of football. It’s already been announced that they expect their backup QB to be the starter by this time next year. Miami could realistically start 1-4, which might facilitate a quick change at QB. From there, the rest of the season will be a wash as they get pounded around and their 11 wins in 2008 looks more and more like a franchise aberration.
AFC North
Pittsburgh; 12-4: -
The Steelers have a tougher start than people realize, especially since the first four teams they play will attempt to use their opportunity against the champs to make big statements. Still, there is no reason to suspect that Pittsburgh will be worse than last years Superbowl winning team, so the Steelers should be able to scratch out another division title.
Cincinnati; 10-6: -
Marvin Lewis quietly went back to his strength last year when he turned the Bengals into the number 8 defense in all of football. That defense returns this year, along with Carson Palmer with some diverse personalities for receivers (Chris Henry, Chad Ocho-Cinco, Laveranues Coles). This team is going to surprise a lot of people, and find their way into the playoff race.
Baltimore; 5-11: -
When they are 2-2, people will excuse their record on the fact that they play some good teams early. No one will recognize that the defense lost some real impact players, and the running attack is downgraded. Last year, this team ran at a higher percentage than anyone. Maybe Joe Flaco can make up for it this year, but more likely he’ll have a sophomore slump and will see the rougher side of playing in the NFL.
Cleveland; 5-11: -
Who knows? No one knows who the starting QB is, let alone what players could be in new uniforms by the trade deadline. In his first year in NY, Eric Mangini was supposed to lose 13 games, but then shocked the world by getting into the playoffs. Mangini could shock some people again this year, but there are too many good opponents for this team to make a run.
AFC South
Indianapolis; 12-4: -
For years, Indianapolis would start off hot, coast into the post season, and then do nothing. Last year was a reverse in that trend, as Indianapolis needed to win their last 9 in order to make the post season. This year, they have a very balanced schedule and should be a very balanced team. Although they play in a strong division, they can handle it. Bring the division title back to Indy is not unlikely.
Tennessee; 11-5: -
The Titans start this season with a rougher schedule then people realize. They could be 3-3 heading into their Week 7 bye, and Jeff Fisher could put Vince Young back into a position to lead this team. Although the centerpiece of their defense left town, all ten other starters are their and hungry. The last 10 games of the Titans schedule are remarkably light, and should allow them to put together the type of second half run needed to take a wild card slot.
Houston; 10-6: -
The Texans have quietly been efficient the last two seasons, and there is no reason to believe they’ll take any steps backward this year. Five of the last six games are against less than stellar opponents, and if New England decides to sit a few starters in Week 17, we could be looking at the first 10 win season in team history.
Jacksonville; 5-11: -
The Jaguars don’t look like they ever recovered from the playoff loss to New England two seasons ago. Having every home game blacked out on local television won’t do much to energize the fan base either. It’s been a downward slope for the Jaguar’s, and while another five-win season probably won’t spell the end for Jack Del Rio as coach, but it could lead to the end of David Garrard’s as the starting QB.
AFC West
San Diego; 11-5: -
In what should be the weakest division in the NFL, the undisciplined charges should coast through the AFC West, potentially going 6-0 vs division opponents. Trough road games (@ PIT, @ NYG, @ TEN) could prevent them from racking up enough wins to get a first round playoff bye, as will the cocky/half-fast approach those players take toward the game once they lock up a playoff seed in Week 13.
Kansas City; 6-10: -
Week’s 3 – 6 are all against the NFC East, likely the strongest division in football. This rough start should humble these young players, who don’t look ready to win yet anyway. The second half schedule is significantly lighter, and should be a good test to see how much of a force KC will be in 2010.
Denver; 5-11: -
After trading their franchise QB and alienating their best receiver, the Bronco’s enter 2009 with one of the toughest road schedules in football, while also hosting PHI, SD, and NYG. Denver could come off the bye and easily lose 5-7 straight. However, because they play in such a poor division, they could scratch out just enough wins to justify the new head coach keeping his job.
Oakland; 3-13: -
This franchise is a mess. If they don’t win during the first four weeks, they may not win a game all season. Al Davis has said that he won’t hand over the reigns of the franchise to anyone. However, there is one true Raider out there who isn’t just anyone. If this season goes as poorly as people expect, then we could see John Madden rejoin his true franchise to run football operations.
NFC East
Philadelphia; 12-4: -
Even without Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb has more weapons going into this season then he’s ever had before. With Michael Vick, this team adds a new dimension that every opponent will have to spend significant time preparing for. Outside of division opponents, their schedule is not difficult, and Philadelphia has a very good chance at winning the division.
New York Giants; 11-5: -
Although he’s getting paid like a top five QB, Eli Manning simply isn’t one. Maybe his new young receivers can make a difference, but more likely the running attack and defense will carry this team though the season, again. A rather light schedule outside of the division should allow this team to go to the playoffs for another consecutive year.
Washington; 9-7: -
The Redskins started strong last year before everything fell apart in the second half. A couple of player upgrades should increase this team’s competitive nature, while smart play and a relatively light schedule should allow them to win a lot of games.
Dallas; 8-8: -
Uncharacteristically, the Cowboys have had a quiet off-season. However, that could be due to the owner’s gag order, which was put in place after multiple anonymous reports regarding personnel disruptions, coaching power struggles, and thought from inside the franchise that Tony Romo has already hit his peak as a player. This is a make or break year for Romo, as the distractions are gone and he’ll truly be graded on his own merits.
NFC North
Green Bay; 13-3: -
Even if they split their division games with Minnesota and Chicago, this team should still win 12 and be in contention for the top spot in the NFC come playoff time. The defense will look more like it did in 2007 than 2008, and in December people should be talking about both Aaron Rogers and Greg Jennings as top 5 players at their positions.
Chicago; 9-7: -
A lot of people are expecting this defense to be back in top form and Matt Forte to prove himself as a top five running back. The defense will be good, not great, and the same could be said for Forte. Still, there is no one for Jay Cutler to throw the ball to, and the division is still reasonable competitive. This team could sneak there way into a wild card spot, but don’t expect too much from them by the time they get there.
Minnesota; 7-9: -
Without Brett Favre, the Vikings are a dominate running team that won’t play anyone with real run stopping ability. With Brett Favre, this is a team that will face some major distractions during some prominent weeks of the season. There is no reason to believe that Favre will play all 16 games, and the changes at QB, along with the media attention that comes with it, will prevent this team from breaking 500.
Detroit; 5-11: -
Even if Culpepper were starting the season behind center, the Lions schedule to start the season is especially rough and this team could be winless going into their bye week, which would definitely cause the change at QB anyway. After the bye, the schedule is lighter, and this team should be able to scratch out a few good wins before the season is over.
NFC South
Atlanta; 12-4: -
The Falcons shocked people last year with a dominate 11-5 season, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez will only make them better offensively. Week 3 @ New England could be a real opportunity to prove themselves as one of the NFL’s elite teams, and a relatively easy second half schedule should allow the Falcons to be a true force as they head into the playoffs.
New Orleans; 9-7: -
Since their NFC championship loss to Chicago, the Saints have continuously taken steps backwards year after year. The defense has continued to struggle, and the offense can’t be as high octane as it was one year ago. Despite an ok year, this could be the third year without a trip to the playoffs, and that might mean that the coach will have to go.
Carolina; 5-11: -
There are a lot of weapons on this team, but the Panthers could look to change up at QB early. But to who? Carolina has followed a similar trend over Jon Fox’s tenure; every good year is followed by a bad one (or two). Expect another bad year from the Panthers in 2009, followed by an inevitable change at QB, and a potential change at coach as well.
Tampa Bay; 1-15: -
While some teams are entering this season in a transition, but the Buccaneers are in a full scale rebuilding mode. Their defensive anchor is now coaching in college, and offensive guru is in the Monday Night Football booth. Derrick Ward will have to carry an offense while this team transitions in a rookie QB. It’s going to be a long season.
NFC West
Seattle; 12-4: -
What killed this team in 2008 was the way receivers went down during the preseason and Week 1. In 2009, this team has a lot going for them; the signing T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the return of Nate Burlson, the chip on Edgerrin James shoulder, and a new voice/energy at head coach. The Seahawlks should return to their better days and take another division title home with them.
Arizona; 7-5: -
Last year, Arizona was a mediocre team in a bad division before their running game stepped up in the playoffs, enabling their passing game to make people say wow. They’re still going to be competitive, but Superbowl losers traditionally fall off the following year and this team won’t be any different. Expect this team to be average, again, but not make it to the playoffs this time around.
St. Louis; 5-11: -
A team in a true transition year, they hired a defensive coach who will definitely make in impact, but probably over time. In the second half, they play some really good offenses, and the impact of their new system will really be tested.
San Francisco; 3-13: -
The changes in coaching last year sparked a fire that made this team someone to watch out for in the second half. However, this year they have a ridiculously difficult schedule, no significant QB, and no real additions from last year (thanks to Michael Crabtree). This team is going to have a rough 2010, and hopefully will draft correctly during the off season.
2009 Playoffs:
Week 1: -
Tennessee (5) over San Diego (4)
Cincinnati (6) over Indianapolis (3)
Atlanta (3) over Chicago (6)
Philadelphia (4) over New York Giants (5)
Week 2: -
New England (1) over Cincinnati (6)
Tennessee (5) over Pittsburgh (2)
Seattle (2) over Atlanta (3)
Philadelphia (4) over Green Bay (1)
Week 3: -
New England (1) over Tennessee (5)
Philadelphia (4) over Seattle (2)
Superbowl: -
Philadelphia over New England
End of Year Awards:
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Donald Brown (RB, IND) -
A beast in college, Brown joins an offense aching for a hard-nosed power runner with a good head for football. Already praised for his work ethic by Payton Manning, Brown’s presence will upgrade the performance of Joseph Addai, but by seasons end expect Brown to be the featured back in this offense.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
B.J. Raji (DT, GB) -
Green Bay’s defense will have a lot of contributing factors, but Raji will be getting much of the credit by years end. Big games against division rivals Chicago and Minnesota could be helpful, because stopping the top rushers on those teams will force the league to take notice of this young defensive lineman.
Comeback Player of the Year:
Vince Young (QB, TEN) -
Although he’s not slated to play at the start of the season, expect Vince Young play the last ten games and do what he always does; WIN. As a rookie, he went 9-1 to finish the season and barely missed the playoffs, yet it was enough to win him rookie of the year. While he might not win 9 of his last ten, this time he’ll get the Titans into the post season, earning himself another individual honor by years end.
Offensive Player of the Year:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) -
He should probably share this award with Greg Jennings, but QB’s always get the credit. As a first time starter, Rogers played every game and put up real star numbers. There is no reason to suspect that he won’t get better, and be recognized for his brilliance by the end of the year.
Defensive Player of the Year:
Mario Williams (DE, HOU) -
If Houston hits double digits in wins this year, they’ll deserve a trip to the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’ll have to settle for one players individual recognition as a freak of nature. Williams’s football intelligence continues to improve year by year. Expect 15-20 sacks this year as he leads one of the five best defenses in the NFL.
Coach of the Year:
Jim Mora Jr (SEA) -
Mora is supposed to be a defensive coach, but the offense will make him look like a genius this year. During his time with Atlanta, his defense was weak, but a talented QB carried him far into the playoffs, earning him undue praise as his team went to the NFC Championship Game. Déjà vu in 2009, as another mediocre defense will be cured by a must-see offense, this time securing Mora with a trophy.
MVP:
Matt Hasselback (QB, SEA) -
Hasselback has a good shot at comeback player of the year as well, but anti-Patriot bias could give him just enough of an edge to beat out Tom Brady for MVP. About once every 8-10 years, an aging players gives one last great season, and writers decide to award him with a partially deserved award. Last time was 2002 with Rich Gannon. This time, it’s 2009 and Matt Hasselback.
Top 10 Draft Picks in the 2010 Draft will go to:
1. Tampa Bay 2. San Francisco 3. Miami 4. Oakland 5. Jacksonville 6. Denver 7. St Louis 8. Carolina 9. Detroit 10. Baltimore
Teams that could have a new head coach going into 2010:
Buffalo -
Typically, if an NFL coach goes three years without taking his team to the playoffs, that coach is dismissed. Dick Juaron probably should have been let go last year, but with several other franchised already looking for a replacement coach, Buffalo knew they wouldn’t get one of the better options. This year, they’ll be fewer teams looking for replacements, and Buffalo will have a host of options to chose from.
Oakland -
Oakland is known for the saying, ‘Whatever it Take’… Today in Raider Nation, it’s whatever it takes to make this franchise relevant again. By the end of the season, it could take a major reformation process, with John Madden playing a significant part. To head up the new regime, Madden could bring in a new, proven head coach. Maybe Madden mends the rift between Mike Shanahan and Al Davis; perhaps he brings back another true Raider in Jon Gruden; and don’t be surprised if you hear Bill Cowers name mentioned in that conversation as well.
Washington -
It seems as if Daniel Snyder has been waiting on Bill Cower since about two days after he retired from Pittsburgh. Cower is still a young man, and as much as he claims to love being in the CBS studio on Sunday’s, it’s hard not to picture him on the sideline every week. Washington is the perfect franchise for Cower; since he’ll have total authority and be close to his home. Washington will make room for Cower when he decides to coach again, if not this year, then next.
Dallas -
It seems as if Jerry Jones has been looking for a good reason to remove Wade Phillips, but hasn’t been able to come up with one. Instead, he’s limited Phillips power and authority; Phillips gets no say about the offense, can’t talk to the media, has no draft input, and makes less than his coordinator; plus rumors of bringing in Mike Shanahan as co-head coach, or potentially demoting Phillips for a better candidate. Despite everything, Phillips won’t quit. If they don’t go far this year, Jones may finally pull the trigger.
New Orleans -
This one is a stretch, but if New Orleans doesn’t make it to the playoffs this year, it’ll be for the third straight year and that spells doom for most NFL head coaches. New Orleans has become a city where the football team means everything, and this coach is said to play a role in the community. I don’t expect New Orleans to make a change unless they are 100% sure they can find someone better. If they can, a changing of the guard just may get done.
Carolina -
Jon Fox has had an up and down career in Carolina; great one year, average (or less than) then next year or two. He’s stayed with Jake Delhomme through many trying times, and if this team isn’t a contender, what to do about Julius Peppers could become a real source of friction for this organization. In the end, with a lot of big coach names still out there, Carolina could feel that a change is worth making; bringing in a new coach, new QB, and a new leader on defense.
Teams looking outside their organization for a new QB this winter:
Jacksonville -
Garrard was supposed to be that back up to Mark Brunell and then the backup to Bryron Leftwich. Somewhere during that time, he stepped up to take the number one spot, but everyone knew it was a temp job. Another poor season for the Jaguars could spark a change.
Denver -
Not only did this team not trade for the QB the coach wanted, but they managed to lose out on their franchise QB in the process. With a poor season expected and some big QB names available in this years draft, expect Denver to bring in a young QB to help throw water off this sinking ship.
Oakland -
No new regime is complete without a new face under center. JaMarcus Russel’s tenure in Oakland has been clouded with confusion, conspiracy, and doubt. Unless he proves something this year, it may be time to start looking elsewhere.
Washington -
Every year, there are rumors that Jason Campbell does not have the confidence of Redskins management. Expect this year to be no different, and with many good QB’s available between the draft and free agency, it won’t be a surprise to see one come in and challenge for the starting job.
Minnesota -
This Brett Favre thing is a one year deal, just long enough for him to potentially get revenge against Green Bay, which I hope (for his sake) is worth the tarnish on his legacy. If Minnesota didn’t have confidence in Tavares Jackson of Sage Rosenfeld this year, no reason to suspect they’ll have it next year either. Plus, there is a perfect QB available in free agency for a team with a power running game and a strong defense, which plays home games indoors; his name is Chad Pennington
San Francisco -
Mike Singletary has been adimate about building a team that wins with great defense and a hard-nosed power running attack. However, at some point you do need to have a good QB. This off season, with all the options available, someone will come in and take over that job.
Carolina & St. Louis -
Both Jake Delhomme and Mark Buldger have been sliding down hill for a few years now. And although both their teams have had different levels of success, both franchise could use some new blood under center.
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Comments (13)
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philly to win the superbowl???
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you're nfc north is crazy
and vikings under .500??? no way
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predictions?
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yes
based on my heckles i will make the following predictions and i bet they are all correct...
the bears and vikings do better then the predictions above and the eagles, packers and seahawks will do worse.
take that to the bank
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thoughts.
If the Bills go 8-8, and only improve by 1 win with TO, that will be a failure in my eyes, however I dont even expect them to be 8-8. They have more talent on the team this year on both sides of the ball, however their glaring weakness (O-line) is even weaker this year. They are also playing a tougher schedule than the pushover schedule they had last season. 7-9 looks pretty realistic right now, but i wouldnt be surprised with a 2 game swing in either direction.
I would hate to see the Pats in the Super bowl again, but I would love to see the Eagles win it.
I think the Vikings should easily make the playoffs, and I still think the Bears suck, even with Cutler.
Pitt has to be the favorite to repeat, and this may be San Diego's year.
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For those fools who chose to question my wisdom:
Chicago: Every talking head on TV who is prediction a major run for Chicago bases their argument on Brian Urlacher having another Defensive Player of the Year caliber season. I do think Urlacher will be good, but his numbers we down significantly last year and I don’t see this 10-year veteran rebounding to the point that he creates another defensive revolution in Chicago. As for the offense, Forte is good, but not good enough to carry a team to 10 wins. And Forte will have to carry that offense, because Cutler simply has no one to throw to.
Minnesota: Brett Favre has bastardized his legacy over the last 16 months, and now he is a Viking just so he can play Green Bay twice. Favre is already making excuses, indicating that he has no intention on playing all 16 games. After week 8 at Green Bay, who knows if he’ll even show up to any Vikings practices, let along games. This will hurt the team beyond repair, and if the eventual suspensions of the Williams boys come through around the same time and Favre’s distracting departure, it’ll all be over.
Lastly:
- The Bill’s offensive line doesn’t look good, and it makes me worry that Edwards will get hurt again.
- A lot of people are big on San Diego, and while I understand why, this team has become the least professional team in all of football ever since Marty Shottenheimer was fired. Their cocky attitude will again prevent them from being champions.
- I don’t like the idea of New England in the Superbowl, but it’s not a hard argument to make. I suspect that even if I get all 12 playoff teams correct, I would probably want to revisit my playoff predictions, simply because the NFL season is often too unpredictable, and you don’t know what any team will look like 17 weeks from now.
Max
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vikes
also, you are putting way too much stock into edgerin james. he had like 2 half way decent games late last year. how can you put that much stock into a backup RB and then say urlacher will nto have as big of an impact as people think?
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Retort
It’s not that I’m putting too much stock in Edge. In Seattle, after Shawn Alexander fell off the face of the earth, the Seahawks were still able to dominate the division with a fast and furious passing attack. Now that they have healthy receivers and a healthy quarterback, I suspect they’ll go back to that mantra, and James will be the RB that allows this to happen as the chip on his shoulder make him effective enough to open up the passing game. Julius Jones will be better too.
It’s not that Urlacher won’t have a big impact, I just don’t see him having the kind of impact that most talking heads are predicting; some sort of rejuvenation that will lead to rival the 1986 team. I do think Urlacher and Chicago will be good (I have them as a Wild Card team), but what will hurt them is the lack of a passing game. Watching tonight’s NBC game, it’s clear that Chicago’s receivers had tons of talent, but not enough football intelligence to carry this team to double digit wins.
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