| 17 September 2009
Traditionally, Week 1 of an NFL Season is the hardest to handicap. Most 'experts' make predictions based on the prior season's results since the pre-season means nothing (just ask the 2008 Detroit Lions, 4-0 pre-season, 0-16 regular season). So while they say anything can happen in the NFL, this is especially true during Week 1. Still, several things happened this past week that few of us saw coming.
Monday Night Mayhem; Buffalo @ New England
At 9:45pm EST, after Buffalo went up 11, I received a text message from someone who doesn't regularly watch Buffalo team sports. It said, "Buffalo. Wow." At 9:50pm EST, I sent my response; "I'm shocked, yet I'm being cautious, because one thing I know to be true is that no team can find a way to have a more heartbreaking loss than a buffalo team."
Outside of the last five minutes, there was a lot of good in this game for Buffalo. Trent Edwards really seemed to understand how to run a no-huddle offense, and Fred Jackson looks like a dynamic player, both running and catching out of the backfield (ala Darren Sproles or Leon Washington). The Buffalo Defense looked solid too, consistently stopping the Patriots on short yardage runs, while also getting pressure on the QB with only a four man rush.
The real glaring negative for Buffalo was the stupid mistakes on offense. Bad penalties either set them back in yardage or erased good plays from the scorecard. Dropped passes were abundant too. These are things that can (and must) be fixed in practice.
Future opponents scouting this game should recognize that there is more to Buffalo's receiving core than T.O. In the weeks ahead, I expect teams to ease up on his double coverage, which should allow him to be more productive and actually earn his key to the city before Buffalo goes around changing all the locks.
Defensively for the Patriot, the pass rush was easily handled by a young offensive line, three of whom were starting their first NFL game. Bill Belichick is known for his ability to scheme and confuse QB's, but Edwards was able to roll out of the pocket and pick the defense apart with a bit too much ease. Jerod Mayo has been anointed the new leader of the defense, and his departure due to injury was clearly a factor. Without him for 6-8 weeks, New England could look like the forth best defense in the AFC East.
Offensively for New England, there was significant rust and it showed. Tom Brady often threw flat-footed against the rush, which likely means that he isn't 100% mentally cured from last season's knee injury. At times, the Patriots front five looked disoriented. Their skill players were ready, willing, and more than able; but most games in the NFL are won or lost at the line of scrimmage. New England will have to firm up if they expect to win, especially with division games against better defenses in the near future.
Chicago loses Urlacher for the Season
Injuries plagued several teams in Week 1, but no one is more affected than the Bears, who will now play the rest of 2009 without the face of the franchise; Brian Urlacher.
Before the season began, many talking heads predicted a significant playoff run for the Bears. Most of those predictions centered on the theory that a rejuvenated Urlacher would lead a punishing defense, making up for a slightly par-ish offense in the process. While I didn't hype the Bears to the same extent as others, I did have them winning nine games, enough to capture the last NFC playoff spot. Now, I can't say I expect the same thing.
Chicago's defense is still strong without Urlacher. After he left Sunday's game, Chicago battled Green Bay (a top five offense) tougher than most other teams can. Adewale Ogunleye played the way a leader needs to play, and Danieal Manning's safety showed that Chicago's defense still knows how to score points, which they'll need to do after Jay Cutler threw four interceptions.
Reading a box score, you'd think Cutler's poor play is the reason for this loss. If you watch the game, you would have seen how this teams receivers, while having a lot of skill, don't have the smarts to make the offense work yet. Unfortunately for the Bears, they play more tough defenses before their Week 5 bye, making a 1-3 start seem more likely than not.
While the first quarter of the season will be tough on this team, the next three quarters should get a little bit easier. Assuming there are no more significant injuries on defense, the Bears could rank somewhere in the top ten. Offensively, Cutler is too good and the receivers too talented, so somewhere down the road expect some level of chemistry to develop. However, instead of a 9-7 finish, 7-9 could be a bit more realistic.
A Slight Wrinkle in a Philadelphia Story
I don't know if anyone in Philadelphia expected Donovan McNabb to start all 16 games this year, something he's only done four times in ten previous seasons. The Eagles have always been prepared for a McNabb injury, and their depth at QB shows that this season is no different. Michael Vick needs time before he'll be productive, but just the treat of having him makes a real difference in the preparation for opposing defensive coordinators. Last year, there were some in the Philadelphia organization who believed Kevin Kolb could be a solid successor if McNabb didn't/doesn't chose to resign. Then there is Jeff Garcia, who got the team within a game of the NFC Championship just three seasons ago.
With this trio, Philadelphia is still good enough to win Week 3 vs Kansas City, Week 5 vs Tampa Bay, and Week 6 at Oakland, with a Week 4 bye thrown in. The tough part of the Eagles season starts Week 7, which is the first of eight straight games against the NFC East and/or opponent with realistic playoff aspirations.
However, this week they play the Saints, who are coming of Drew Brees six touchdown performance in a 45-27 win against Detroit. The Eagles defense is significantly better than the Lions, so the Saints shouldn't score 45 again this week. In the same theory, the Eagles offense is significantly better than the Lions, so the Eagles should score more than 27, at least with McNabb under center.
If McNabb can muster up the strength to play Sunday, it'll be huge for this team. From there, he can take a month to recuperate before the two tough months of football that lay ahead.
Superbowl Losers Curse Continues
Unfortunately, I was not able to watch San Francisco at Arizona, and I haven't seen anything other than highlights. However, I've read several reports and here seems to be the consensus:
Both teams had anemic running attacks, as the games top rusher was the 49ers Frank Gore with only 30 yards. Shawn Hill did what he needed to do and put San Francisco in a position to win, simply by playing smart football and avoiding turnovers at all costs. However, this game was won by the San Francisco defense, who kept the high powered Arizona offense (specifically Kurt Warner) on tilt all game by creatively disguising blitzes then sending in only four men, dropping the rest into creative zone/man coverage's.
As some have stated and most have chosen to overlook, the 2008 Cardinals were a mediocre team last year before the running game showed up in the playoffs, enabling the passing game to be spectacular. In the 2009 regular season, fans should expect this team to fall back to their mediocre ways, likely taking a few steps backwards as most Superbowl losers do.
This game could simply be a case of Week 1 unpredictability or more simply Arizona overlooking their opponent. Most will bypass strict analysis of this game until Arizona starts out 2-4. Then everyone will look back at Week 1 and say, 'the writing was on the wall."
NY Jets: A Real Power in the AFC?
Most of the national media focus from Jets-Texans was centered around Mark Sanchez becoming the first rookie to win an opening day road game since the Gerald Ford administration. Thomas Jones performance should not go overlooked, but it is, largely due to how well Sanchez played on third down. Plus, his ability to both avoid the rush and sling the ball outside the pocket is something that does not come this naturally to many players.
What impressed me most about Sanchez was how he didn't seem to key in on one receiver, instead recognizing that he has several playmakers worth spreading the ball to (Jerricho Cotchery, Leon Washington, Dustin Keller, Chansi Stuckey). As Sanchez gains experience, poise, and comfort, expect the Jets to add in more big time play makers, including Brad Smith, David Clowney, and Shonn Green. If Sanchez progresses the way most hope, this offense will really be able to light some people up.
The real stand out performance in this game came from the Jets defensive unit. The only points scored by Houston came on a pick-six, meaning the Jets defensive unit posted an unrecognized shut out. The blitz packaging looked ferocious, and Rex Ryan hasn't hidden his desire to send six or more on every third and long. Bart Scott and David Harris look to be equal opportunity punishers, scaring both QB's in the backfield and receivers who dare to run up the middle. Kris Jenkins manhandled every smaller offensive lineman sent to block him, and third year pro-bowl corner Darrelle Revis shut down Andre Johnson, a top five receiver in the NFL.
The scariest thing about this unit; they aren't even at full strength. Defensive end Shawn Ellis returns this week from his one game suspension. Three weeks from now, linebacker Calvin Pace will return too.
What to Watch in Week 2
New England @ New York Jets
Week 2 of the 2008 season featured another chapter in the Patriots/Jets rivalry, with a young QB making his first career start going up against a more likely than not future Hall of Fame inductee. This season, it's a similar story. Bill Belichick is undoubtedly a defensive genius, and although Sanchez is a rookie, Belicheick will still need to create something more confusing then the scheme that Trent Edwards dissected for the Bills in Week 1. Tom Brady and crew looked rusty against a solid defense in Week 1. In Week 2, they have to contend with a punishing defense that posted a near flawless shutout against a capable offensive team.
New Orleans @ Philadelphia
By this point, no one questions that Drew Brees is the real deal, but it's one thing to score six touchdowns against Detroit, and it's another thing to do it against Philadelphia. As for the Eagles, they have the talent to score on anyone, but no one is 100% on who will be the QB and/or how will he play. Does McNabb start, and if so, can he overcome injury to score enough points? Does Kolb start, and if so, how much leverage does he get before the team considers going to Jeff Garcia? What if they get to Garcia and he doesn't play well? How does that effect Michael Vick going into Week 3?
Seattle @ San Francisco
A week ago today, I thought this game could have been easily penciled in as a Seattle win. However, after the 49ers surprise win over Arizona, this game looks like something worth watching. How good can San Francisco be? Are they a real contender for the division? Those questions, and more, should be answered by the end of this game.
Baltimore @ San Diego
If there is a way for a team to have an embarrassing win, San Diego did it this past Monday night. If they want to be considered a contender, than an early season beat down of Baltimore is the right first step. I don't expect Baltimore to do anything this season, and if San Diego wins I won't be especially impressed. However, most others expect the Ravens to be a contender, and therefore this game might actually mean something.
Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Pre-season, some thought that this game could be a Superbowl preview. Now, this is more about how the Bears can survive on both sides of the ball. How will the defense fill the huge gap created by the missing Brian Urlacher? Plus, how will Jay Cutler rebound after the worst start of his NFL career? Can either question be answered with a level of satisfaction when you're going up against the defending Superbowl champions?
New York Giants @ Dallas
It always seems to be a big deal when these two teams face off, and there is a little more spice with the opening of the Cowboys new stadium. Dallas's interior defense looked weak in Week 1 against a befuddled Tampa Bay team, as opposed to the Giants who looked solid against Washington. There is a lot of ways this game could go, but if things aren't especially competitive, I suspect the story coming out of Dallas to be about the low scoreboard and how many punted balls it touches.
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