| 28 October 2009
First things first.
Well, where do I start for my first official contribution to Armchair? I guess I could tell you a little bit about myself. Born and raised in Colorado, I'm a rabid broncos fan. If you are an asshole Patriots fan, I hate you. If you are a Bears fan, I root against your team solely in hopes of seeing Cutler throwing multiple interceptions. I was ecstatic about getting Cutler out of Denver, and I said by week 5 before Bears fans would be throwing him under the bus. Cutler may win some games, but the ones he loses feel like a stiff kick in the nuts - right Chicago? What else about me... I ran (and drank) competitively in college... My greatest achievement came with a combination of the two: a world record in the beer mile. Four unopened beers + four laps = 5:41. Ship it. After college I paid the bills for a while with some poker related income, including running a questionably legal gambling operation. Now with a legitimate job as a research scientist, I consider myself an avid armchair sports bettor and poker player. While I confidently say I'm a lifetime winner between the two, degeneracy at the craps and roulette tables probably has me at even. So far this season I haven't had a losing week between NCAA and NFL.
Last weekend.
This last weekend was as exciting as it could be without the Broncos playing. Larry Johnson spiced things up with another slur against homosexuals. What's this guy thinking? I wouldn't tweet something like that and I'm not in the national spotlight - or making probably 40k a game. Can't he just do like the rest of us and save the slurs for beers with the buddies?
Speaking of Gay, William Gay was discriminated against by Adrian Peterson this weekend. I'm not sure what's scarier: AP railing Gay, or AP screaming like a god-damn mad-man about it afterward. I still think the Vikings could have won the game, and me a lot more money, but it didn't work out that way. You win some, you lose some.
This weekend.
The Favre Bowl will take place in Green Bay this weekend. Although I lost big betting on Minnesota last weekend, I haven't learned my lesson. I like Minnesota at +3 here a lot. Packers may not have lost since losing to the Vikings in week 4, but have only played the Lions and the Browns. Thats like the harlem globetrotters playing the washington generals. I'm going out on a limb here, but I still think Minnesota is in a different class than the Packers. Sorry cheeseheads. I'll take the +3 line instead of the outright win to avoid the nut-shot of a game-winning fieldgoal from Crosby.
My big game of the weekend is the Broncos visiting the Ravens. Orton heads into the game playing basically mistake-free football, and as far as I'm concerned has thrown zero interceptions this year (you can count a hail-mary buzzer toss to Moss if you want, but then you'd be stupid). I just can't see the Raven's defense handling the multi-threat offense. Between KO, B-Marsh, Knowshon, Buckhalter, Royal, Gaffney, Scheffler, the Broncos will score at least 24 points. Dumervil will get at least 2 sacks on Flacco, and my man Champ will get at least a pick because of the pressure. If there is one thing the broncos reciever core should be worried about, its Ray lewis.
If the Broncos can effectively defend the screen while bringing the pressure, the Ravens offense will stall. On top of everything else you are giving McDaniels and staff two entire weeks to prepare for this game. I'm convinced the crew can put together one hell of a package in that time. I still think oddsmakers are underestimating the Broncos, but I'll take the advantage on the line. The game will be close, but I'll go out on a limb and say Broncos at +3 is a lock. Broncos - 24, Ravens - 21.
I'm a little more nervous than normal about this weeks picks, but I plan on keeping my winning streak alive.
Week 8 NFL picks -
Seattle @ Dallas (-9.5) - $5 for $4.55
Atlanta @ New Orleans (u54) - $5 for $4.55
Cleveland (+13.5) @ Chicago - $5 for $4.55
Denver (+160) @ Balt - $10 for $16
Denver (+3) @ Balt - $10 for $10
Minn (+3) @ GB - $10 for 9.52
Denver (+160) & Minn (+160) - $5 for $28.80
Risk $50 to win $77.97
Week 9 NCAA Picks-
USC (-3) @ Oregon - $10 for $9.09
Central Michigan (+5.5) @ Boston College - $5 for $4.55
Texas @ Oklahoma St. (+9) - $5 for $4.55
Fan bet: Wyoming (+17) @ Utah - $5 for $4.55
Risk $25 to win $22.74
Last weeks results
NCAA week 8
TCU (-2.5) @ BYU** - Risk $10 to win 9.09 (Correct)
Florida St (+120) @ UNC** - Risk $10 to win $12 (Correct)
Iowa (0) @ Michigan St** - Risk $10 to win $9.10 (Correct)
**3-parlay - Risk $5 to win $30.00 (Correct)
Clemson @ Miami (-4.5) - Risk $10 to win $9.52 (Incorrect)
NFL week 7
Minn. (+170) @ Pitt** - Risk $10 to win $17 (Incorrect)
Arizona @ Giants (under 46) - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct)
Arizona (+7) @ Giants - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct)
Saints (-6.5) @ Miami** - Risk $10 to win $9.10 (Correct)
Chargers (-5) @ Chiefs** - Risk $5 to win $4.55 (Correct)
**3-parlay - Risk $5 to win $44.20 (Incorrect, thanks Favre)
Late Bet - Minn. (+6) @ Pitt - Risk $15 to win $13.64 (Incorrect)
Long shot - Eagles vs Redskins - Player to score the 1st Touchdown - DeSean Jackson (+600) - Risk $5 to win $30 (Correct) Sometimes you just run good, ya know?
Net NCAA: +$50.19
Net NFL: +$22.75
NFL + NCAA Season-to-date = +$255.03
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