| 03 November 2009
...you lose some.
Well, it was bound to happen eventually. My picks last week saw more red than a fire station paint locker. Sometimes you go out on a limb and pick a lot of upsets and it works out; this wasn't one of those times. The Broncos got outhustled, Cutler and the Bears covered, and MNF was a slugfest. I usually do a pretty good job about diversifying my wagers, but I loaded up on Denver this weekend and paid the price. All losses aside, it sure was a fun weekend of pigskin.
The Favre bowl lived up to the hype and gave me a newfound respect for Bret. Not just because he continues to prove he is one of the greatest ever to play, but you can tell that the man truly loves the game... that's it, he just loves playing football. I don't get involved with the argument of why Favre's not playing for GB. Favre kinda left the GM out to dry with his flip-flopping in 2008, and Thompson had to make the best decision at the time for the franchise - committing to Aaron Rodgers. I'm fine with that (although, I CANNOT imagine Elway coming into Mile High wearing black and silver). Favre threw four touchdowns and was absolutely elated after each one; you could tell all he cared about was playing football and playing it well. I loved looking in the stands and seeing handfuls of fully garbed cheese heads cheering along with him. With news of his groin injury, the old dog must be happy he has a bye this weekend. Mark my words; this will be Brett's last season playing NFL football. Keep an eye on Percy Harvin - the guys a fucking beast. And now that he is on punt returns also, look for some (more) tremendous special teams action - and an NFL offensive rookie of the year.
Quick note on college football. Florida routed Georgia, no surprise. I didn't get to watch the game, but I must admit I spent a few hours trying to see if I could manage to fly down just for the party that surrounds this event. I mean who wouldn't want to go to an awesome football game that also results in a record number (252) of drinking arrestes? Sounds like a hell of a party. Maybe next year. Fresh off of injury, Brandon Spikes kept things interesting by trying to remove Easley's eyeball. The panicked reaction by Easley confirms it - that fucking hurts. I understand stuff like this happens, but I always thought it was like "hey my hand ended up under your mask, might as well poke yer eye," but Spikes was fingering like he was having flashbacks to his days in the dorms. The result? A first half "suspension" against Vandy. Right. Nice punishment. "I don't condone that," ... "I spoke with him. That's not who he is. That's not who we are. He got caught up in emotion." If Meyer had any brains he would suspend him for the entire game to appease everyone, while at the same time giving Spikes a chance to get back to 100% health. It's a win-win, that's what you Florida fans want right, the title?
This week
I wasn't very confident in my picks last week, and I was right. I'll try and get back on track this week. I think the biggest game this week may be Baltimore @ Cincinnati. I decided I couldn't bet against the Bengals a few weeks ago, and I was going to look for a good spot to bet on them; I think this is it. They are a 3 point underdog, playing at home, and playing lights out ball. They are just too good and continually underrated. Cinn is 4-0 as an underdog, and 2-0 as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Baltimore walloped the Broncos last week... maybe I'm still sore from that. I'm putting my money on the Bengals covering the spread, but not a lot.
Broncos. Broncos. Broncos. MNF. Invesco Field.. bah. I was kind of hoping that after the Ravens fiasco the early line of +3 would widen a bit. It hasn't. I love the Broncos, and I love the Broncos playing at home. Part of me flashes back to the Patriots game and thinks we can do it, while another part of my thinks of the Ravens near perfect game plan that picked us to pieces. It's hard to say what the Steelers will bring, but it's going to be a show. I have tremendous faith in the new broncos coaching staff to make great adjustments; I'm just a little shell shocked and want to see this weekend play out before I make a firm judgment on the Broncos. I think if you like betting on the Steelers, this is a good spot for you. I'd rather just root for the Broncos this week and pass on the +3 unless it opens up a lot on Friday. Other good bets - Chargers cover +4.5 against the spiraling Giants. Green bay (-10) goes big against the Bucs after the Favre Bowl. Atlanta is looking way better than -10 at home against the skins. Also, im not taking it, but how can you root against Tom Brady?
Wagers
|
Wager |
Risk |
to win |
|
Washington @ Atlanta (-10) |
$5.00 |
$4.55 |
|
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+3) |
$5.00 |
$4.00 |
|
Chargers (+4.5) @ Giants** |
$10.00 |
$9.09 |
|
Chargers (+190) @ Giants |
$5.00 |
$9.50 |
|
Green Bay (-10) @ Tampa |
$5.00 |
$4.55 |
|
UL Monroe (+1) @ North Texas** |
$15.00 |
$13.64 |
|
Oregon (-7) @ Stanford |
$5.00 |
$4.55 |
|
Oklahoma St (-7.5) @ Iowa St |
$5.00 |
$4.55 |
|
TCU (-24.5) @ San Diego St |
$5.00 |
$4.55 |
| Bowling Green @ Buffalo (-3) | $5.00 | $4.55 |
|
**2-parlay |
$5.00 |
$13.00 |
|
Total |
$7000 |
$76.53 |
Last Weeks picks
Seattle @ Dallas (-9.5) - $5 for $4.55 (Correct)
Atlanta @ New Orleans (u54) - $5 for $4.55 (Incorrect)
Cleveland (+13.5) @ Chicago - $5 for $4.55 (Incorrect)
Denver (+160) @ Balt - $10 for $16 (Incorrect)
Denver (+3) @ Balt - $10 for $10 (Incorrect)
Minn (+3) @ GB - $10 for 9.52 (Correct)
Denver (+160) & Minn (+160) - $5 for $28.80 (Incorrect)
USC (-3) @ Oregon - $10 for $9.09 (Incorrect)
Central Michigan (+5.5) @ Boston College - $5 for $4.55 (Incorrect)
Texas @ Oklahoma St. (+9) - $5 for $4.55 (Incorrect)
Fan bet: Wyoming (+17) @ Utah - $5 for $4.55 (Correct)
Net: -$36.38
NFL + NCAA Season-to-date:+$218.65
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